Weekly Markets Monitor: A silver lining playbook?

Highlights

• Last week’s updates pointed to an uneven but resilient global economic backdrop and persistent policy uncertainty. The US economy slowed in Q4, the trade deficit widened, inflation firmed, Fed divisions emerged and the Supreme court blocked global tariffs. Europe and Japan showed improving momentum and easing price pressures, while in India activity stayed steady, though trade deficits widened sharply.

• Major global equity markets ended the week mostly higher, while US Treasury yields declined and the US dollar and crude oil prices strengthened.

• After a couple of quiet-ish weeks, Geopolitics – stretching from the Potomac to the Persian Gulf – have started to move asset prices again. Gold gained a modest percent, but silver saw a large 9% bounce last week coinciding with COMEX futures short covering rather than fresh longs. It’s early days yet, but positioning at these levels has historically indicated positive returns 72% of the time three months later, rising to 75% after six months. Should silver start motoring, sentiment could spill over positively to gold, and perhaps vice versa (C.O.T.W).